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Voir la version complète : Merrill: Non-OPEC Peak Oil May Be Past


nacer-eddine06
22/04/2009, 18h19
In February Merrill Lynch analysts issued a report saying that non-OPEC oil production may have already peaked. “In summary, assuming the ongoing recession does not turn into a multi-year event where global oil demand is pushed down structurally for the next five years, the steep decline rates in OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike could put upward pressure again on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011.” Here are two press reports:
Thomson Financial News

STOCKS NEWS US-Merrill: Non-OPEC oil production may have peaked (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/03/afx6002345.html)



http://images.forbes.com/media/partners/storylogos/thompson.jpg (http://www.forbes.com/breakingnews/AFX_full.html)
Merrill Lynch on Tuesday said that crude oil production from non-OPEC nations may have already peaked, nothing that oil production decline rates were a function of investment rates, as well as the size and age of oil fields. ‘All these factors point to steeper oil output declines going forward,’ the firm wrote.
The International Energy Agency expects an increase in non-OPEC output of 51 million barrels per day over the next seven years, the firm said, while it sees production in the range of 49 million to 50 million barrels a day in the same period.
‘Should the credit crunch push decline rates to 6 percent, however, non-OPEC production could decline precipitously toward million barrels per day by 2015 from the current levels,’ it wrote.

Has non-OPEC oil production peaked? (http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=31005&t=1&c=33&cg=4&mset=)

Source: BI-ME , Author: BI-ME staff paper out today from Merrill Lynch says the combination of low oil prices and a global credit crunch will prove rather damaging for the oil industry. Its analysis based on the IEA Field by Field Production database finds decline rates at an average of 4.2% per annum since 2003.
Extrapolating from this sample to create a global production profile, the bank believes the global decline rate has averaged at least 4.5% year on year in recent years. These rates, however, could accelerate further over the next few years, according to Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodities Research and lead author of the report. Furthermore non-OPEC crude oil production may have already peaked.
Broadly, oil production decline rates are a function of investment rates and the size and age of fields. All these factors point to steeper oil output declines going forward. However, the IEA works under the assumption of oil production decline rates of 4.7% to 2015, expecting an increase in non-OPEC output to 51 million bpd over the next seven years.
In contrast, in Merrill’s base case scenario it estimates output decline rates of 5%, and it sees non-OPEC oil production stuck in the current 49 to 50 million bpd range in the same period. Should the credit crunch push decline rates to 6%, however, non-OPEC production could decline precipitously towards 47 million bpd by 2015 from the current levels. The commodity super-cycle is not over, just resting.
In summary, assuming the ongoing recession does not turn into a multi-year event where global oil demand is pushed down structurally for the next five years, the steep decline rates in OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike could put upward pressure again on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011.
In particular, if the low oil price, high cost of money environment persists for most of this year and next, Merrill’s base case scenario for non-OPEC production could prove optimistic, exacerbating the second leg of the commodity super-cycle.

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