25 avril 2009 — Depuis le début de l’année a été lancée, sans véritable fracas au milieu d’une époque qui en est pleine mais avec entêtement comme il sied à un Polonais de cette envergure, l’idée du “G2” de Zbigniew Brzezinski. (Américain d’origine polonaise et américaniste, pour dire plus juste.) La chose a été présentée en détails succincts par le même Brzezinski, dans un court article publié le 13 janvier 2009, dans le Financial Times. Le principe du G2 est assez simple, qui recouvre essentiellement l’idée d’un “partenariat” USA-Chine, ou d’un “partage du monde” en bonne entente et juste coopération entre les USA et la Chine. Cela permettra, selon Zbig et plus modestement que l’idée de “sauver le monde” qui nous vient à l’esprit, de “changer le monde” («The Group of Two that could change the world»).
Conclusion de l’article de Brzezinski, qui résume sa thèse:
«We need to develop a shared view on how to cope with the global risks posed by climate change. We should explore the possibility of creating a larger standby UN peacekeeping force for deployment in failed states. We should discuss how an international initiative towards a global adoption of the zero-nuclear weapons option might be helpful in stemming wider nuclear weapons proliferation. We certainly need to collaborate closely in expanding the current Group of Eight leading industrial nations to a G14 or G16, in order to widen the global circle of decision-makers and to develop a more inclusive response to the economic crisis.
»But to promote all that we need an informal G2. The relationship between the US and China has to be a comprehensive partnership, paralleling our relations with Europe and Japan. Our top leaders should therefore meet informally on a regular schedule for personal in-depth discussions not just about our bilateral relations but about the world in general.
»All this points in a politically as well as philosophically ambitious direction. The Chinese emphasis on “harmony” can serve as a useful point of departure for the US-Chinese summits. In an era in which the risks of a massively destructive “clash of civilisations” are rising, the deliberate promotion of a genuine conciliation of civilisations is urgently needed. It is a task that President-elect Barack Obama – who is a conciliator at heart – should find congenial, and which President Hu Jintao – who devised the concept of “a harmonious world” – should welcome. It is a mission worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for shaping our collective future.»
Le 22 avril 2009, Henry C K Liu, qui dirige un groupe d’investissement à New York et qui s’est signalé comme un excellent commentateur de la situation économique, publiait un long article, au cœur d’une série de cinq, sur Atimes.com, dont il est un collaborateur régulier. Il s’agit d’une approche critique de la thèse de Brzezinski («Obama, Change and Chine, – Brzezinski's G-2 grand strategy»).
L’article est très long, très détaillé, très construit selon une vision économique et géopolitique d’un homme qui a par ses origines une très bonne expérience de la Chine, et par son expérience courante, une très bonne connaissance des USA. Henry C K Liu ne dissimule pas une seconde ce qu’on est nécessairement conduit à penser d’une telle initiative de Brzezinski, qui parle évidemment au nom d’une fraction réaliste à Washington, alors que les USA sont dans un processus de perte accélérée d’influence; il ne dissimule pas que le G2 n’est rien qu’un faux masque posé sur une manœuvre destiné à préserver, ou plutôt à retenir autant que faire se peut une partie de l’influence que les USA sont en train de perdre. («Brzezinski's statement aims at preserving US dominance in an existing world order that is facing fast and fundamental changes by drawing China into regions previously beyond a weak modern China's sphere of influence…»)
»Brzezinski is acknowledged as a key adviser to President Obama on foreign policy during and since the presidential election, while he acted as foreign policy advisor to Hillary Clinton during the primaries. Many analysts consider Brzezinski as the spokesman for previously anti-Soviet, now anti-Russia hawk faction in the US foreign policy establishment. His speech in Beijing was addressed to Washington through talking to Beijing. The message is for the US not to waste financial, political and military resources confronting a China destined to process enormous and rising economic, political and military strength and potentials that will surge further over time unstoppable.
»US national interests globally would be better served by a strategy of making friends with China by sharing power globally because eventually the US will need the support of the world's most populous country to preserve and shore up its own global dominance. By contrast, conflicts with China will drain US capacity to maintain its global dominance.»
• Liu observe que l’idée de Brzezinski est loin de faire l’unanimité de l’establishment washingtonien. On s’en doute, bien entendu, et ce rappel est bienvenu et nécessaire dans la mesure où il soulève la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les USA seraient capables de tenir de tels engagements.
«Brzezinski's vision of harmony with China is not shared by all in the US. Within days after Hillary Clinton's maiden foreign visit to Beijing as secretary of state, during which she declared US-China cooperation as imperative for enhancing the national interests of both countries and for pulling the world from the current financial crisis, the US Navy staged a provocative intrusion into Chinese territorial waters by a US low-frequency sonar surveillance ship near China's submarine base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea, mapping deep-sea routes for submarines leaving and entering their base. China claimed that the USNS Impeccable had sailed into the country's 200-kilometer economic exclusion zone.
»Press reports are suddenly appearing on computer hackers allegedly associated with the governments of Russia and China having embedded software in the US electricity grid and other infrastructure that could potentially disrupt service or damage equipment, even though such concerns have been simmering for years within government security establishment. Obama reportedly has started a 60-day review of all the nation's efforts at cyber security that was expected to be completed by April 17. […]
»For the idea of G-2 to work, the US has to adjust fundamentally foreign policy it has followed since the end of Word War II, away from neo-imperialism toward Wilsonian/FDR liberalism, and give up its aim of peaceful evolution of Chinese society towards market capitalism. A G-2 would have to be a leading force in building a new world order of social justice and economic equity.»
Conclusion de l’article de Brzezinski, qui résume sa thèse:
«We need to develop a shared view on how to cope with the global risks posed by climate change. We should explore the possibility of creating a larger standby UN peacekeeping force for deployment in failed states. We should discuss how an international initiative towards a global adoption of the zero-nuclear weapons option might be helpful in stemming wider nuclear weapons proliferation. We certainly need to collaborate closely in expanding the current Group of Eight leading industrial nations to a G14 or G16, in order to widen the global circle of decision-makers and to develop a more inclusive response to the economic crisis.
»But to promote all that we need an informal G2. The relationship between the US and China has to be a comprehensive partnership, paralleling our relations with Europe and Japan. Our top leaders should therefore meet informally on a regular schedule for personal in-depth discussions not just about our bilateral relations but about the world in general.
»All this points in a politically as well as philosophically ambitious direction. The Chinese emphasis on “harmony” can serve as a useful point of departure for the US-Chinese summits. In an era in which the risks of a massively destructive “clash of civilisations” are rising, the deliberate promotion of a genuine conciliation of civilisations is urgently needed. It is a task that President-elect Barack Obama – who is a conciliator at heart – should find congenial, and which President Hu Jintao – who devised the concept of “a harmonious world” – should welcome. It is a mission worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for shaping our collective future.»
Le 22 avril 2009, Henry C K Liu, qui dirige un groupe d’investissement à New York et qui s’est signalé comme un excellent commentateur de la situation économique, publiait un long article, au cœur d’une série de cinq, sur Atimes.com, dont il est un collaborateur régulier. Il s’agit d’une approche critique de la thèse de Brzezinski («Obama, Change and Chine, – Brzezinski's G-2 grand strategy»).
L’article est très long, très détaillé, très construit selon une vision économique et géopolitique d’un homme qui a par ses origines une très bonne expérience de la Chine, et par son expérience courante, une très bonne connaissance des USA. Henry C K Liu ne dissimule pas une seconde ce qu’on est nécessairement conduit à penser d’une telle initiative de Brzezinski, qui parle évidemment au nom d’une fraction réaliste à Washington, alors que les USA sont dans un processus de perte accélérée d’influence; il ne dissimule pas que le G2 n’est rien qu’un faux masque posé sur une manœuvre destiné à préserver, ou plutôt à retenir autant que faire se peut une partie de l’influence que les USA sont en train de perdre. («Brzezinski's statement aims at preserving US dominance in an existing world order that is facing fast and fundamental changes by drawing China into regions previously beyond a weak modern China's sphere of influence…»)
»Brzezinski is acknowledged as a key adviser to President Obama on foreign policy during and since the presidential election, while he acted as foreign policy advisor to Hillary Clinton during the primaries. Many analysts consider Brzezinski as the spokesman for previously anti-Soviet, now anti-Russia hawk faction in the US foreign policy establishment. His speech in Beijing was addressed to Washington through talking to Beijing. The message is for the US not to waste financial, political and military resources confronting a China destined to process enormous and rising economic, political and military strength and potentials that will surge further over time unstoppable.
»US national interests globally would be better served by a strategy of making friends with China by sharing power globally because eventually the US will need the support of the world's most populous country to preserve and shore up its own global dominance. By contrast, conflicts with China will drain US capacity to maintain its global dominance.»
• Liu observe que l’idée de Brzezinski est loin de faire l’unanimité de l’establishment washingtonien. On s’en doute, bien entendu, et ce rappel est bienvenu et nécessaire dans la mesure où il soulève la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les USA seraient capables de tenir de tels engagements.
«Brzezinski's vision of harmony with China is not shared by all in the US. Within days after Hillary Clinton's maiden foreign visit to Beijing as secretary of state, during which she declared US-China cooperation as imperative for enhancing the national interests of both countries and for pulling the world from the current financial crisis, the US Navy staged a provocative intrusion into Chinese territorial waters by a US low-frequency sonar surveillance ship near China's submarine base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea, mapping deep-sea routes for submarines leaving and entering their base. China claimed that the USNS Impeccable had sailed into the country's 200-kilometer economic exclusion zone.
»Press reports are suddenly appearing on computer hackers allegedly associated with the governments of Russia and China having embedded software in the US electricity grid and other infrastructure that could potentially disrupt service or damage equipment, even though such concerns have been simmering for years within government security establishment. Obama reportedly has started a 60-day review of all the nation's efforts at cyber security that was expected to be completed by April 17. […]
»For the idea of G-2 to work, the US has to adjust fundamentally foreign policy it has followed since the end of Word War II, away from neo-imperialism toward Wilsonian/FDR liberalism, and give up its aim of peaceful evolution of Chinese society towards market capitalism. A G-2 would have to be a leading force in building a new world order of social justice and economic equity.»
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