Annonce

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h20

Algeria

Overview

SINCE 2000 ALGERIA HAS CONSOLIDATED its economic growth, and the reforms undertaken are beginning to bear fruit. Growth in 2008 was 3.3 per cent and inflation 4.4 per cent. Having appreciated since 2007, the exchange rate of the dinar (DZD) remained close to its equilibrium value in 2008 (68 dinars to the US dollar [USD]), and unemployment stabilised at around 12 per cent of the active population. Strengthened by an average oil price of USD 99 per barrel in 2008, the Bank of Algeria built up foreign exchange reserves amounting to almostUSD142 billion. Following early repayments, total external debt fell to USD 460million (0.27 of gross domestic product [GDP]), and internal public debt dropped by nearly 30 per cent. Weak growth of 0.2 per cent is expected in 2009, as a result of falling global demand and reduced prices of oil and gas.
The state budget remains expansionary because of the higher wage bill and increased public investment, but the deficit, excluding oil taxes, remains high (approximately 42 per cent of GDP, excluding oil and gas). The overall fiscal position remains positive thanks to higher oil and gas revenue, but in 2009 it is expected to feel the effects of the global crisis and the collapse in oil prices. To ensure the medium-term viability of public finances and balance of payments, the country will need to diversify further its non-oil economy. This is the only solution to create enough jobs, reduce unemployment and improve the standard of living of the population.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h23

Algeria

Overview

SINCE 2000 ALGERIA HAS CONSOLIDATED its economic growth, and the reforms undertaken are beginning to bear fruit. Growth in 2008 was 3.3 per cent and inflation 4.4 per cent. Having appreciated since 2007, the exchange rate of the dinar (DZD) remained close to its equilibrium value in 2008 (68 dinars to the US dollar [USD]), and unemployment stabilised at around 12 per cent of the active population. Strengthened by an average oil price of USD 99 per barrel in 2008, the Bank of Algeria built up foreign exchange reserves amounting to almostUSD142 billion. Following early repayments, total external debt fell to USD 460million (0.27 of gross domestic product [GDP]), and internal public debt dropped by nearly 30 per cent. Weak growth of 0.2 per cent is expected in 2009, as a result of falling global demand and reduced prices of oil and gas.
The state budget remains expansionary because of the higher wage bill and increased public investment, but the deficit, excluding oil taxes, remains high (approximately 42 per cent of GDP, excluding oil and gas). The overall fiscal position remains positive thanks to higher oil and gas revenue, but in 2009 it is expected to feel the effects of the global crisis and the collapse in oil prices. To ensure the medium-term viability of public finances and balance of payments, the country will need to diversify further its non-oil economy. This is the only solution to create enough jobs, reduce unemployment and improve the standard of living of the population.

Recent Economic Developments

Economic growth increased slightly in 2008 to 3.3 per cent, from 3 per cent in 2007; but it remained below the projected levels, in particular because of lower production and oil and gas exports. Nevertheless, the increase in medium and long-term credit to the economy and in private-sector credit demand confirmed the signs of good growth in non-oil GDP, which reached 6.1 per cent in 2008. Growth remains largely dependent on oil and gas production and government investment, which makes it vulnerable to sharp downturns in world oil prices, thus reducing state revenue, which comes essentially from oil taxes. In this respect, given the reduction in Algeria’s oil-production quota by 200 000 barrels a day following the decision made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of 2008 to reduce output, and given the drastic fall in global demand and prices, only weak growth is expected in 2009 (0.2 per cent). On the other hand, good rainfall during the 2008/09 season may significantly increase production and consumption of agricultural products (crops and livestock).
Overall growth in 2008 was affected by the 0.2 per cent fall in oil and gas production (the third consecutive year that production has fallen, after falls of 0.9 per cent in 2007 and 2.5 per cent in 2006), and the poor performance of agriculture. The solid performance of the services, infrastructure and construction sectors, and to a lesser extent industry, accounted for the strengthening of growth in 2008.
Oil and gas continue to dominate the Algerian economy. The sector accounted for nearly 46.7 per cent of GDP in 2008 and 97.5 per cent of export revenue. The country’s oil and gas reserves remained high: 43 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOEs) for oil, and nearly 5 trillion cubic metres (m³) for gas. The public operator Sonatrach (Société nationale pour la recherche, la production, le transport, la transformation et la commercialisation des hydrocarbures) controls 43 per cent of the national mining industry and 75 per cent of extracted oil and gas. In addition, it benefits from contracts of association with foreign partners. Although the level of crude oil production has changed very little over the past few years, remaining at around 1.4 million barrels a day, this has been compensated for by the country’s gas output, particularly for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and condensates. Once production begins on the In Amenas gas fields, in partnership with British Petroleum, gas production will increase by nearly 18 billion m³ per year. The development of the gas fields discovered in the southern Saharan regions of Illizi and the Ahnet Basin will increase the country’s export capacity to 85 billion m³ per year by 2010, and to nearly 100 billion m³ by 2017. Local demand will also increase, from 27 billion m³ in 2008 to nearly 52 billion m³ in 2013. Local demand will double because of the growing needs of new, energy-intensive projects such as fertilisers, electricity generation and seawater desalination, as well as increased housing demand and the use of gas to fuel motor vehicles. In 2008, public sector gas export capacity rose to 70 billion m³, compared with 62 billion in 2006. The Transmed gas pipeline, which transits through Tunisia, is expected to increase its annual capacity from27 to 33 billion m³, thereby making it possible to transport more gas to Europe. The collapse in global crude oil prices since July reduced oil and gas export revenue in 2008 by nearly USD 2 billion (USD 78.2 billion, compared with projections of USD 80 billion). Combined with the fall in global oil prices and the stagnant level of oil production, Sonatrach’s reduction in production by 200 000 barrels/day to respect its OPEC quota will automatically affect export revenue, which is expected to fall to USD 38.3 billion in 2009, based on a reference price of USD 50 per barrel. In spite of this downturn in production, Sonatrach intends to continue with its plan to invest more than USD 63 billion from 2008 to 2012 in partnership with foreign oil companies.
The agricultural sector, which produces more than 6.5 per cent of the country’s wealth, grew by only 1 per cent in 2008, as against 5 per cent in 2007. This weak growth was essentially due to the decline in cereal production, which represents more than 40 per cent of value added in the sector. The estimated production for 2008 of 21million quintals is less than half the size of the 2007 harvest (43million quintals). Accordingly the volume of food imports reached a record level of USD 8 billion in 2008, but the figure may be even higher in 2009.This would affect the country’s public finances, given the weight of state-approved subsidies to consumer staples to protect the population’s purchasing power.
Growth in industry (excluding oil and gas) rose to 2 per cent from 0.8 per cent in 2007. This sector, which accounts for less than 4.5 per cent of GDP, owes its performance to high levels of electricity production and a slight recovery in manufacturing (0.8 per cent increase).The sectors responsible for this modest upturn in industrial activity are agribusiness (12.8 per cent growth); energy (9.1 per cent); chemicals, rubber and plastics (8 per cent); and mines and quarries (7.9 per cent).The sectors in decline were wood, cork and paper (10.6 per cent decline); steel, engineering and electrical goods (5.2 per cent); hides and skins (3.2 per cent); and textiles (1.9 per cent). The Agence nationale du patrimoine minier (ANPM) awarded 27 exploration licences worthDZD350million for various minerals, including gold, iron, copper and lead.
The construction sector saw a decline in growth from a rate of 9.8 per cent in 2007 to 9.4 per cent in 2008. This downturn was partly due to the saturation of capacity to absorb investment in infrastructure. The sector, which accounts for 8.7 per cent of GDP, continues to benefit from domestically funded capital expenditure: it absorbs 40 per cent of funds allocated to infrastructure and to house building (nearly 150 000 homes were completed in 2008).
Market goods and services grew by 7.5 per cent in 2008, as against 6.8 per cent in 2007, representing 19.8 per cent of GDP. The strong rise in imports, especially capital equipment, led to a significant increase in transport and distribution activity and in imports of technical and consulting services. Public services grew by only 5.5 per cent in 2008, as against 6.5 per cent in 2007; they account for 8 per cent of GDP.
In spite of the satisfactory financial position and good performance of the main aggregates, sectors such as industry other than oil and gas, and to a lesser extent agriculture, still make a weak contribution to GDP. In spite of the investment in human resources further efforts are needed to increase the skills the country needs to establish the conditions for sustained development and to absorb unemployment which remains high, especially among young graduates. In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), Algeria attracted only USD 1.5 billion in 2008, mainly in oil and gas, as against USD 1.37 billion in 2007.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h24

These flows remain modest in relation to the country’s potential because of a legal and regulatory business framework which, in spite of the reforms implemented, has room for improvement.
Domestic demand was relatively stagnant in 2008, down slightly to 77.1 per cent of GDP from 78.2 per cent in 2007; even so, gross investment recorded stronger growth than consumption, especially public investment, which expanded by 13 per cent. Gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to grow in 2009 thanks to the continued gross investment that, in the context of the crisis, the authorities intend to consolidate through the new 2010-14 investment plan. External demand (essentially energy products) increased in 2008, and total exports, benefiting from high oil prices before the crisis, reached DZD 5.3176 trillion. A downturn could occur in 2009 because of the fall in oil and gas prices, lower global demand and the reduction in output by Sonatrach. The value of imports in 2008 was nearly USD 40 billion, having risen by 26.9 per cent, as against 14 per cent in 2007. This increase in growth was essentially due to the rise in imports of equipment, raw materials and food, of which world prices increased significantly.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h28

oups oups......................

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h32

Macro Economic Policy

Fiscal Policy

Public finances remain marked by the rise in budget expenditure linked to the five-year development programme, the 2005-09 Plan complémentaire de soutien à la croissance économique (PCSCE, Supplementary Plan to Support Economic Growth), and by the weight of operating expenditure. The latter grew following the Treasury’s taking charge of the operating expenditure of the new administrative and socio-cultural structures and because of the significant state intervention in social action, amounting to DZD 1.0763 trillion in 2008 (9.9 per cent of GDP). Furthermore, delays in effecting public investments entailed cost reassessments, in particular because of a problem in the management of the costs of public projects. The 2008 budget was also characterised by an increase in the wage bill following the reform of the public sector salaries scheme, which aims to improve the efficiency of public authorities.
The 2008 supplementary budget changed the reference price of oil from USD 19 to USD 37 per barrel. Since 2002, the surplus revenue acquired through oil exports above the reference price has been held in a Revenue Regulation Fund (FRR).The purpose of this fund is to enable the country to deal with any changes in the international economic situation, repay external debt and rebalance public finances if there is a budget deficit.
Dominated by oil revenue, which accounted for more than DZD 3.2 trillion, government revenue in 2008 totalled DZD 4.2296 trillion, as against DZD 3.6878 trillion in 2007. Ordinary taxation represented only about 23 per cent of total revenue. Spending increased fromDZD3.1085 trillion in 2007 to 3.495 trillion, of which DZD 1.6659 trillion was allocated to investment. The deficit excluding oil and gas was DZD 2.4183 trillion (22.3 per cent of GDP), but given the FRR reserves of DZD 4.3 trillion, this deficit is bearable. Nevertheless, the fall in oil and gas revenues in 2009 combined with the rise in public expenditure and imports could affect negatively the FRR and foreign exchange reserves and reduce the balance of payments account. The overall surplus increased from5.6 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 7.5 per cent in 2008.
The 2009 budget allocates substantial resources to increasing public expenditure and to the content of the new 2010-14 economic recovery programme, costed at USD 150 billion. Furthermore, the budget treats the transfer of profits of branches and subsidiaries to foreign parent companies based abroad as dividend payments, thereby making them subject to a tax rate of 15 per cent. The budget also sets a specific 20 per cent capital gains tax on the transfer of assets or company shares by non-residents. A deficit equivalent to 11.5 per cent of GDP is forecast in the overall balance in 2009.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h33

Monetary Policy

By the end of November 2008, the Bank of Algeria’s net external assets totaled DZD 8.29038 trillion. Since 2005, these assets have been greater than the country’s money and near-money liquidities. This difference resulted in money supply growth of 24.17 per cent in 2007 and 10.13 per cent during the first half of 2008. Its structural development reveals a stabilisation of the relative share of sight deposits and a large increase in deposits by Sonatrach.
Before the Treasury repurchased the non-performing loans of public enterprises, credit to the economy increased by 5.15 per cent in June 2008, compared with 5.45 per cent for the same period in 2007. Most lending went to the private sector (55 per cent), while there was a reduction of the share of non-performing loans and a stabilisation of medium and long-term loans, which accounted for 50.9 per cent of lending at the end of June 2008, as against 51.26 per cent in 2007. Government debt, however, fell owing to the Treasury’s progressive reduction of debt in respect of the financial system. Thanks to the increased resources of the FRR, at the end of November 2008 the Treasury’s net claims on banks amounted to DZD 3.2154 trillion. This growing liquidity has led to a substantial increase in the volume of activity of the interbank money market, with negotiated amounts totalling DZD 37.4 billion by the end of November 2008, as against DZD 16.3 billion in 2007, with an average interest rate stabilised at 3.1 per cent. Excess liquidity in the money market reached DZD 2.3428 trillion during the same period, compared to 2.0012 trillion in 2007, indicating structural excess liquidity. Reserve requirements were increased to 8 per cent in 2008, from 6.5 per cent in 2007. Concerned with improving its control of inflation, in 2008 the Bank of Algeria decided to limit its monetary growth rate to 27 per cent and credits to the economy to 15.3 per cent, but despite a slowdown at the start of the year, the average rate of inflation for the year was 4.4 per cent.
The Bank of Algeria continues to favour the managed floating exchange rate regime for the Algerian dinar, with the aim of ensuring the stability of the currency’s real effective exchange rate (REER) in an international context characterised by highly volatile financial and foreign exchange markets. The appreciation of the Algerian dinar against the USD and the variation in the exchange rate between the dinar and the euro have led to the short-term consolidation of the national currency’s REER, which was calculated atDZD68 to the US dollar in the 2008 supplementary budget, up from DZD 72 to the US dollar in the initial budget.
Foreign exchange reserves, which reached USD 142 billion in December 2008, continue to be managed prudently. Since 2004, in order to better manage foreign exchange risk, the Bank of Algeria has combined diversifying its foreign exchange reserves with investment in less risky assets, such as US treasury bills. This policy, coupled with the stabilisation of the Algerian dollar’s REER at its equilibrium level, has put the Bank of Algeria in a good position to deal with the turbulent international financial markets.
External Position

The average crude oil price of USD 99 per barrel in 2008 gave Algeria a current account surplus of USD 38.9 billion, compared to USD 30.2 billion in 2007. Exports of goods and services stood at USD78.2 billion, with exports to the European Union (EU) accounting for USD 39.9 billion and exports to non-EU OECD economies accounting for USD 28.89 billion. Exports other than oil and gas remained marginal, amounting to USD 1.35 billion, and consisted mainly of intermediate products (USD 904 million), especially oil derivatives. Imports of USD 39.9 billion were a record, up from 33.9 billion in 2007; the main imports were capital equipment, intermediate products and food. Imports come mainly from OECD countries (nearly 82.6 per cent). France is the leading importer (USD 6.5 billion), followed by Italy (4.3 billion) and the United States (2.6 billion). Led by China, with nearly USD 4 billion in transactions, OECD non-members account for 18.19 per cent of trade. The volume of trade with other North African countries remains low, even though it increased in 2008 to USD 1.71 billion from USD 678 million in 2007. There was a substantial rise in trade with other Arab countries, from USD 1.1 billion in 2007 to 1.57 billion in 2008. The upgrading of public and private enterprises is expected to be accelerated to prepare them for the tough competition they will face when Algeria joins the Arab Free-Trade Area (AFTA) in 2009 and when full trade liberalisation with the EU occurs in 2012, and to prepare them for membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is stalled on the issue of alignment of energy prices in the domestic market with world prices. The impact of the current crisis on demand for oil and gas is expected to cause a sharp fall in the trade surplus in 2009 to 11.3 per cent of GDP, down from 28.7 per cent in 2008.
The improvement in Algeria’s external position since 2002 has made it possible to reduce Algeria’s external debt to sustainable levels. Early repayments made in 2004 have led to a drastic reduction in external debt from USD 910 million at the end of 2007 to USD 460 million (0.27 per cent of GDP) in 2008. This policy has also enabled the country to replenish its reserves during the global credit crunch and prevent appreciation of its external debt and the negative consequences this would have on the state budget, taking into account the strong appreciation of the euro against the dollar. Significant foreign exchange reserves and a stable exchange rate have enabled Algeria to withstand external shocks better, but the economy remains vulnerable, since it is highly dependent upon oil and gas exports. Algeria must preserve the medium and long-term viability of its balance of payments by creating the conditions for a diversification of its economy and by controlling inflation. The capital balance continues to deteriorate as transfers abroad, chiefly from oil companies, which account for 80 per cent of such transfers, increased from USD 4.75 billion in 2005 to USD 7 billion in 2007. In 2008 these transfers are estimated at almost USD 8 billion.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h34

Structural Issues

Private Sector Development

To promote the growth outside oil and gas needed to reduce unemployment and poverty, the authorities must not only consolidate macroeconomic balances, but also pursue the structural reforms they have initiated to improve the business climate. The private sector still has to work in a business environment that needs improvement. The 2008 Doing Business report published by the World Bank places the country 132nd in its Ease of Doing Business Index, seven places below its 2007 ranking. The difficulties in getting credit, the complexities of starting a business or enforcing contracts and the procedures for obtaining planning permission still affect the private sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In response to the problem of access to land for industrial use, which discourages investors, the authorities decided in 2008 to make public land available to industry through 99-year concessions awarded by the Agence nationale d’intermédiation et de régulation foncière (ANIREF), which organises transactions and sets prices. Governance and corruption problems continue to affect the business environment, in spite of anti-corruption legislation passed in 2006 and a system for the declaration of the assets of senior civil servants and the leaders of political parties. Reform of the financial system is the cornerstone of the measures aimed at ensuring that the country benefits from its integration into the regional and global economy and at improving the business climate. Since 2004, the authorities have pursued reforms to improve bank governance, the holding to account of those running them, risk management and efficiency of their services. New bond issues have revitalised the country’s financial market at the expense of a share market for which there is very little demand from businesses. There is not yet a market for commercial paper, which could compete with banks for the provision of short term financing, which goes to the best clients who account for more than half of total lending. The authorities are putting the final touches to a legal and fiscal framework to promote this new financial instrument. Other Recent Developments

The restructuring of public enterprises continues, in particular to improve their performance and make easier access to bank loans without the Treasury guaranteeing them. This restructuring involves improving the main financial ratios to make them comply with eligibility criteria for credit. This has already enabled banks to provide nearly 64 per cent of their lending to businesses, compared with only 14 per cent in 2005. Public banks remain the main provider of credits to public enterprises and their non-performing loans have often been repurchased by the Treasury, enabling the banks to remain solvent. Nevertheless the authorities are determined to prevent new unproductive loans from emerging by drastically limiting bank financing of non-viable public enterprises. To strengthen the financial structure of public banks, the authorities have decided to raise the minimum capital requirement from DZD 2.5 billion to DZD 10 billion. In 2009, they will also recapitalise public banks to the tune of DZD 50 billion to make them more active in financing industry and supporting SMEs. Furthermore, in 2009 the Banque algérienne de développement is due to be changed into an investment fund, the resources of which will be devoted to the promotion and implementation of investment projects.
No fewer than 407 major public enterprises out of 1 000 are due to be modernised with investment to renovate their production facilities. This investment aims to create national champions grouped around 13 large economic development companies outside the energy and banking sectors that can be opened up to private investors and that are based on existing bodies such as Saidal (pharmaceuticals), SNVI (automotive), Enie (electronics), Cosider (construction), Ferphos (phosphates) and Asmidal (fertilisers). This new industrial strategy is expected to get under way in 2009. Moreover, any future privatisation or creation of joint enterprises with foreigners will have to leave the Algerian partner with a majority share (at least 51 per cent). The authorities have also decided to exercise their preemption right on transfers of ownership of companies that have belonged to the state or involve public funds. In the field of privatisations, transfer of ownership to a local private operator has only occurred with 96 of the 417 public enterprises for which such transfers were planned. New rules have been introduced to encourage diversification of investment, improve the selection of new domestic and foreign investments and make them conform to the National Development Plan for 2010-14.The advantages afforded to investors should serve to direct capital towards projects and regions identified in the new strategy. The capital of public enterprises will be opened up in a way that will benefit foreign companies that take into account these investment selection criteria and associate with local private investors.
Large infrastructure projects benefiting from a USD 200 billion multi-year financing plan will be undertaken in the areas of road, rail, ports, seawater desalination, power stations, dams, housing, etc. The 1 216-kilometre east-west motorway will be opened in 2010, and the first metro line in Algiers (nine kilometres long) should be operational by September 2009. A USD 18 billion plan has been drawn up to rehabilitate existing railway infrastructure and open new east-west and north-south lines. The government plans to expand the rail network from 4 940 kilometres to 9 000 kilometres by 2014 and to increase the length of electrified lines from 350 kilometres to 1 200 kilometres by 2012 and 6 000 kilometres by 2025. The new deep-water port being built at DjenDjen, to be managed by the UAE-based company Dubai Ports World, and the expansion of the ports in Oran, Algiers and Béjaïa should increase the number of containers that can be handled by the country’s ports. The public company Sonelgaz plans to build 9 500 kilometres of gas supply pipes between 2010 and 2014 in response to the projected domestic gas consumption of 31.2 billion m³ in 2017, as against 19 billion m³ in 2008. Sonelgaz also plans to generate 14 000 megawatts (MW) of electricity in 2010 (compared to 7 900 in 2007) to cover domestic demand, which is increasing by 7 per cent per year, and to export to the Mediterranean basin.
All action related to the management of natural resources and environmental protection is now conditional on a national development plan. Most efforts in this area focus on preserving water resources. Household connection rates to electricity and drinking water supplies increased from 78 per cent in 2000 to 92 per cent in 2007, while 47 sewage-treatment stations have been built and 450 sanitation projects have been implemented. Finally, 39 dams have been built since 1999, and eight new dams and six seawater desalination plants are expected to open in 2009.
Problems related to the management of property and financing of farms, which are holding back growth in agriculture and handicapping investment and innovation, led the authorities to pass a framework law on agriculture in 2008, which they put forward as a recovery strategy for the sector. Coupled with existing legislation on land ownership, this framework law will regulate the way private state land is managed by transferring it to the current farmers, who may form commercial companies. These companies may have shareholders, and banks may accept the companies’ agricultural assets (land, produce, equipment) as collateral for operating or investment credits. Further, a new type of seasonal credit – the Rfig credit – was introduced in 2008, providing farmers with interest free loans funded by the Ministry of Agriculture for the purchase of inputs.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h36

Annual Theme

Algeria lags behind other countries in the area of new information and communication technologies (NICTs) in respect of Internet and broadband services, but mobile telecommunication services have made remarkable progress since the sector was opened up to competition in 2002. The authorities are aware of the gap with other countries and have created an NICT development programme called e-Algeria 2013.
The NICTs market represents only 3.38 per cent of GDP and employs 1.18 per cent of the active population. The mobile telecommunications sector is subject to strong competition, while the incumbent operator of fixed telephone services, Algérie Télécom, still holds a monopoly and is struggling to meet the ever growing demand. According to the regulatory body for postal and telecommunications services in Algeria, the Agence de régulation des postes et des télécommunications (ARPT), in 2008 there were 3.1 million subscribers to fixed telephones and 27.5million subscribers to mobile phones. This brings the total number of subscribers to 30.6 million, from 1.4 million in 2002, and the penetration rate up to 92 per cent (82 per cent for mobile phones and 10 per cent for fixed lines). The total turnover for the three mobile-phone operators in 2008 was DZD 200 billion.
The current legal and regulatory framework allows the development of fixed telephone services and Internet access, and the public operator plans to invest USD 2.5 billion between now and 2010 in order to increase the number of subscribers to fixed telephone services to 7 million and the number of subscribers to ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) to 3million (up from 190 000 ADSL subscribers in 2008). The public operator is working with a private operator to make wireless connections widely available and increase penetration in remote rural areas. Satellite GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) has been operational since 2005, and VSAT (Very Small Aperture Terminal) licences have been granted to private operators.
Private operators are active in the assembly of computer equipment, but customs duties remain high, thus delaying expansion. Annual sales of personal computers (PCs) have barely reached 200 000, and the penetration rate of computers in households remains low (1.06 per cent). PCs remain expensive and interest rates on consumer loans remain high (nearly 8 per cent). In spite of its previous failure the government is planning to relaunch the Ourastic scheme more effectively. This scheme, whose slogan is “a computer for every family”, aims to enable households to connect to the Internet thanks to soft bank loans. Businesses and central government still do not have sufficient computer equipment and broadband connections.
Algérie Télécom dominates the fixed-line market, in spite of short-lived competition from the Egyptian backed Consortium algérien des telecommunications (Lacom), which focused on the wireless local loop (WLL) system, but which recently ceased all operations because it did not have networks of its own. There are three mobile-phone operators: ATM, a subsidiary of AlgérieTélécom operating under the trade name Mobilis since 1999 using GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) 900 technology; OTA, a subsidiary of the Egyptian group Orascom Telecom Holding operating since 2002 under the commercial name Djezzy using GSM 900/1800 technology; and WTA (Wataniya Telecom Algérie), a subsidiary of the Kuwaiti group National Mobile Telecommunications Company operating under the commercial name Nedjma since 2004 using GSM 900/1800 technology.
Three operators share the VSAT market (Algérie Télécom Satellite [ATS], a subsidiary of AlgérieTélécom; Divona Algérie, a subsidiary of Monaco Télécom; and Orascom Télécom Algérie), and three operators share the Global Mobile Personal Communications by Satellite services (GMPCS): ATS, Thuraya Satellite Algérie and France Télécom Mobile Satellite Communications Algérie. All technological platforms for access to telephone and Internet services are used: copper wire, ADSL, cable, land and submarine fibre optic, GSM, and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), as well as networks such as WLLs, Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) connections, Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) networks and satellite networks with gateways.
The telephone operators are regulated by the ARPT and share the telecommunications infrastructure. The agency is responsible for the environmental and security aspects of the installation of transmission masts, which require authorisation. Algeria has submarine cables connecting it to the rest of the world, and there are plans for a fibre-optic link with Nigeria. Although Algeria’s telecommunications market is effective and dynamic, it is not currently able to cover the whole of the country’s territory.
Since 2004, a policy has been implemented to provide rural and poorer areas with access to NICTs. This policy embraces telecommunications, broadcasting and information technology. Broadband networks already enable ADSL operators to offer converged services. Legislation on postal services and telecommunications passed in 2000 defines universal service as providing the population with a minimum service consisting of a telephone service of a specific quality, the ability to make emergency calls, information services and a printed or electronic directory of subscribers. Operators must provide all users with a service that includes voice and data services from a fixed telephone or terminal throughout Algeria for local and interurban communication; access to Internet services, incoming national and international voice and data services; and free access to emergency and security calls. Other services that may be offered include services to non-geographic numbers, including calls that are free to the caller, shared-cost and shared-revenue services, image services, broadband services and voice and data services from the telecommunications network belonging to another Algerian operator aimed at the domestic or foreign market. The provision of these services does not give the right to financial compensation for the universal service.
As with other public services with a monopoly, it is difficult to make funding the universal service profitable. Regulators have therefore created a funding mechanism based on contributions by the licence-holding operators of 3 per cent of their annual turnover. The budget stipulates that the state must contribute only when ARPT funds for the universal service are insufficient.
The ARPT, which was established in 2000, is responsible for opening up the NICT sector to private investment, and it ensures that regulations on postal services and telecommunications are respected. The organisation is an independent institution with a legal identity and financial autonomy. Its director-general is appointed by the president of the republic. To ensure its independence, the authority has a board of governors and its own financial resources, including payment for the services it provides, licence fees, a percentage of fee payments for licences and the contribution made by operators to the universal service. The decisions made by the board can be the subject of appeal to the Conseil d’État (State Council). The ARPT ensures there is fair competition between NICT operators and that the licence conditions are implemented. Finally, it ensures that, while property rights are respected, the telecommunications infrastructure is shared. The ARPT is also responsible for the procedures for the allocation of establishment and operating licences and defines the rules on pricing for the services provided to the public.
Algérie Télécom has subsidiary firms for mobile phone services (Mobilis), Internet services (Fawri), and VSAT and GMPCS services (ATS).The other operators, especially mobile-phone operators, are private companies with mainly foreign capital. Imported mobile phones (nearly 3.8million units in 2008) are subject to customs duties and 17 per cent value-added tax (VAT), but many telephones are sold through the informal economy (40 per cent of the market), thus escaping any taxation. The prices set for fixed telephone services are based on the unit, and mobile-phone services are now charged per second. The operators receive their financing from their own resources and from loans, with both local and foreign investors among their shareholders.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h37

The main cause of the poor development of fixed telephone services lies in the monopoly held by the public operator, which is unable to meet the growing demand. The now-defunct private operator Lacom was completely dependent upon the networks and infrastructure of the public operator. Healthy, regulated competition must be ensured to stimulate the sector, as has occurred with mobile-phone communications.
The private operators have been trying to introduce new services into the market, although these remain limited for the moment. The operator Djezzy, for example, has signed agreements with airlines operating in the country for the use of its mobile phone services on planes. The authorities aim to develop Internet and NICT services via television, with 95 per cent of households owning a television set. The only authorized ways of exchanging money are through the Algerian postal service and through Western Union, within the currency controls set by the Bank of Algeria. Mobile phones are now widely used for transactions between farmers, and the informal sector is run essentially through mobile phones, both for domestic and international transactions. In 2006, Algeria scored only 0.36 in the UN e-Government Readiness Index, and in 2007 it had just 0.8 Internet servers per million people. Education and research are beginning to develop and are now supported by six research programmes with 474 projects in mathematics, physics, space technology and microelectronics. The country has also launched a major programme for the creation of technopoles. In respect of vocational training, an intranet project set up in 2006 connected all training centres to each other and to the administration and offers e-learning services. Furthermore, 33 Cisco academies, developed in conjunction with the company Cisco, have been opened and offer training in new fields, such as networking. Software and computer-servicing companies and call centres have developed. Algeria has 26 call centres, 11 Audiotex service providers, 71 Internet service providers, 14 GPS firms, 11 providers of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services, five operators of postal services subject to the authorisation scheme and 23 subject only to declaration, and 6 000 Internet cafés.
Political Context

In November 2008, a special session of the Algerian parliament amended the provisions in the constitution limiting presidents to two terms of office, thereby authorising President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to stand for a third termin the presidential election on 9 April 2009. According to official figures, President Bouteflika was elected with 90 per cent of the vote and voter turnout was 74 per cent. Another noteworthy event in 2008 was the replacement of the prime minister and secretary-general of the largest party in parliament, the National Liberation Front (FLN), by Ahmed Ouyahia, secretary-general of the second-largest party, the National Rally for Democracy (RND).

Social Context and Human Resource Development

Algeria is performing well in providing access to basic education. According to national sources, the gross enrolment rate for compulsory primary education (6-12 year olds) reached 111 per cent in 2008 (114 per cent for boys and 106 per cent for girls), up from 96.01 per cent in 2005.The gender parity index, which measures relative enrolment of girls and boys, currently stands at 0.93. In secondary education there are more girls than boys, since the primary school dropout rate is 10.3 per cent for boys but only 7.8 per cent for girls and the repetition rate is 14.4 per cent for boys but only 9.2 per cent for girls. The gross enrolment rate in secondary education reached nearly 83 per cent in 2008.The rate for boys was 80 per cent, while that for girls was 86 per cent; the gender parity index was 1.08 per cent. In higher education, the enrolment rate remained at 21.8 per cent in 2008. Nevertheless, there was an improvement in the enrolment rate for boys from 18.4 per cent in 2007 to 19.4 per cent, while for girls the rate decreased from25.3 per cent to 24.4 per cent. Despite the improvements, the overall performances for the education system as a whole remain poor given the level of public expenditure allocated to the sector, the second largest recipient of government funds. The dropout and repetition rates remain relatively high at all levels of education, especially in higher education, where there is a mismatch between graduate numbers and the labour market. The literacy rate was estimated at 75 per cent in 2008 (84 per cent for men and 66 per cent for women).
The health system is making progress, but it still has to deal with chronic and infectious diseases linked to underdevelopment. There has been consistent improvement in calorie intake, hygiene (water and sanitation), education (especially among girls), incomes, housing, and access to basic health care for nearly 98 per cent of the population, The introduction of free health care for mothers and children, the expanded vaccination programme, birth spacing and the fight against HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis have also helped improve public health. Other positive measures resulting from the national health programmes include health insurance covering 80 per cent of the population, free health care for people on low incomes, an expanded network of healthcare centres and pharmacists and the monitoring of the quality and price of medicines. In terms of health infrastructure, Algeria has 185 regional health agencies, 13 CHUs (university hospital centres) and various specialist hospitals. Life expectancy at birth rose from 67.3 years in 1995 to 75.7 years in 2006, giving the country one of the highest levels in the region. The infant mortality rate has improved considerably, having fallen from 36.9 to 26.9 deaths per 1 000 live births between 2000 and 2006. The child mortality rate has also improved considerably, having fallen from 43 to 31.41 deaths per 1 000 children between 2000 and 2006. Algeria is expected to meet all the health related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, except for maternal mortality, which despite falling slightly, because of an increase in assisted births, remains high (92.6 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2006). HIV/AIDS prevalence remains low, at just 0.1 per cent, and there are around 60 voluntary screening centres and 1 500 screening and monitoring units throughout the country. There are also seven regional treatment centres for AIDS, and five more were expected to open by the end of 2008. Nevertheless, primary health care centres are still not used efficiently, and the care provided is less than optimal. The maintenance and servicing of health infrastructure and equipment still leave much to be desired, even though the skills of the medical and paramedical staff are constantly improving. Although there is still insufficient regulation, private health care is increasing, but it is not yet able to respond to the growing demand, particularly in terms of quality and safety.
According to indicators on life expectancy, education, access to water, access to financial services and access to health care, Algeria’s human poverty index (HPI) has fallen from24.67 per cent of the population in 1998 to 18.95 per cent in 2006, representing an improvement of 5.72 percentage points.
Although the various economic recovery and development programmes substantially reduced unemployment from 27 per cent to 11.8 per cent of the active population between 2001 and 2008, Algeria still has one of the highest rates of unemployment in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. Furthermore, the method used to calculate the figure is questionable, since its employment statistics include workers from the informal sector, as well as apprentices and other people with temporary contracts. The national training system is in many areas not adapted to the labour market, and unemployment is higher among graduates. Unemployment among young people remains a concern: 30 per cent are out of work, and nearly 72 per cent of unemployed people in Algeria are below 30 years of age.

**nacer-eddine06** · 11 mai 2009, 16h38

Country Statistics

Statistic 20082007 Basic Indicators Real GDP growth (%) 3.33.0 Gross Domestic Product (US$ million, current prices) 158,974135,507 GDP per capita (Current US$) 4,6254,002 GDP per capita (PPP) 6,054 Demand Composition Total Final Consumption (% of GDP) 41.343.2 Private Consumption (% of GDP) 30.131.3 Public Consumption (% of GDP) 11.211.9 Total Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP) 33.235.0 Private Capital Formation (% of GDP) 22.023.9 Public Capital Formation (% of GDP) 11.311.1 Trade balance (% of GDP) 28.725.2 Exports (f.o.b) 47.044.6 Imports (f.o.b) 18.319.5 Public Finance Total revenue and grants (% of GDP) 39.139.3 Tax revenue (% of GDP) 7.67.9 Grants (% of GDP) 0.00.1 Total expenditure and net lending (% of GDP) 32.334.5 Total expenditure and net lending (US$ million) 5,138,5454,675,405 Current expenditure (% of GDP) 16.917.8 Wages and salaries (% of GDP) 5.25.6 Interest on public debt (% of GDP) 0.70.8 GDP per capita (Current US$) 4,6254,002 Capital expenditure (% total expenditure and net lending) 0.50.4 Primary balance (% of GDP) 7.55.6 Overall balance (% of GDP) 6.84.8 GDP local currency (Local currency) 10,230,1089,389,600 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) 6.84.8 Fiscal balance (US$) 1,078,804647,690 Monetary Indicators Inflation (%) 4.33.5 Exchange rates (LCU/US$) 64.469.3 Broad Money - level (LCU billion) 7,698 Broad Money (% of GDP) 65.0 Reserves, excl. gold, at year end (US$ million) 136,599 Reserves (Eq. months of imports) 59.2 Current account balance (US$ million) 38,88330,386 Current account balance (% of GDP) 24.522.4 Diversification index 2.4 FDI inflows 1,665 FDI outflows 290 Aid Flows ODA net total, all donors (US$ million) 390 ODA net total, DAC countries (US$ million) 289 ODA net total, multilateral (US$ million) 93 External Debt Indicators Total external debt (US$ million) 5,123 Total external debt (% of GDP) 2.83.8 Debt service (% of exports of goods and services) 1.72.4 Worker remittances (US$ million) 2,906

Country Statistics

Gross Domestic Product (US$ million, current prices): 158,974 GDP per capita (Current US$): 4,625 Trade balance (% of GDP): 28.7 Inflation (%): 4.3 Reserves (Eq. months of imports): 59.2

Annonce

Perspectives économiques en Afrique (PEA) 2008/09

Perspectives économiques en Afrique (PEA) 2008/09

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire

Commentaire