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Bonsoir, comment nous perçoivent les investisseurs arabes de l'extérieur et notamment au Moyen Orient, c'est trés intéressant, même le titre est gratifiant et souligne la puissance de l'Algérie.
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• After a long period of political instability and economic malaise, we believe the outlook for the Algerian economy to be very positive. We expect growth in domestic demand to accelerate supplementing the dual impact of higher oil prices and political stability.
• We expect that the government will continue to implement a policy of strong fiscal expansion, given hydrocarbon dominance of the economy, to boost economic growth. The USD60 billion capital spending program will focus on infrastructure and public services projects with economic and social returns.
• We believe the Algerian central bank should continue to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates, to absorb the excess liquidity in the banking system. The acceleration of structural reform of the banking sector is key to monetary policy efficiency and growth in non-hydrocarbon GDP. While we believe that infrastructure spending will not trigger significant inflationary pressure due to the significant involvement of foreign contractors and import-oriented private consumption, banking sector weaknesses and rapid fiscal expansion will result in moderate inflation over the short term.
• Algeria’s external position will continue to strengthen with higher trade and current account surpluses. Over the medium term, as direct investments continue to flow into the economy, the accelerated redemption of external debt will mean a capital account deficit, while high energy prices imply continued growth in foreign reserves.
• Strict capital controls will continue to fuel a parallel market and encourage capital outflows from the domestic household sector. We do not expect the removal of capital controls over the medium term, pending implementation of structural economic reforms to reduce risk.
• We believe robust growth in the non-hydrocarbon sectors, especially services, will continue over the medium term yielding high profit margins to private businesses, compensating for the high cost of doing business.
• Primary risks to the economy are the lack of economic diversification and political uncertainty which could reverse the economic reform process over the short term. However, we believe that strong economic fundamentals and a visible political commitment to reform provide strong support in the case of a domestic or external shock (political unrest or a drop in oil prices).
Source: EFG-Hermes
https://www.arabfinance.com/news/Def...ype=Commentary
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• After a long period of political instability and economic malaise, we believe the outlook for the Algerian economy to be very positive. We expect growth in domestic demand to accelerate supplementing the dual impact of higher oil prices and political stability.
• We expect that the government will continue to implement a policy of strong fiscal expansion, given hydrocarbon dominance of the economy, to boost economic growth. The USD60 billion capital spending program will focus on infrastructure and public services projects with economic and social returns.
• We believe the Algerian central bank should continue to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates, to absorb the excess liquidity in the banking system. The acceleration of structural reform of the banking sector is key to monetary policy efficiency and growth in non-hydrocarbon GDP. While we believe that infrastructure spending will not trigger significant inflationary pressure due to the significant involvement of foreign contractors and import-oriented private consumption, banking sector weaknesses and rapid fiscal expansion will result in moderate inflation over the short term.
• Algeria’s external position will continue to strengthen with higher trade and current account surpluses. Over the medium term, as direct investments continue to flow into the economy, the accelerated redemption of external debt will mean a capital account deficit, while high energy prices imply continued growth in foreign reserves.
• Strict capital controls will continue to fuel a parallel market and encourage capital outflows from the domestic household sector. We do not expect the removal of capital controls over the medium term, pending implementation of structural economic reforms to reduce risk.
• We believe robust growth in the non-hydrocarbon sectors, especially services, will continue over the medium term yielding high profit margins to private businesses, compensating for the high cost of doing business.
• Primary risks to the economy are the lack of economic diversification and political uncertainty which could reverse the economic reform process over the short term. However, we believe that strong economic fundamentals and a visible political commitment to reform provide strong support in the case of a domestic or external shock (political unrest or a drop in oil prices).
Source: EFG-Hermes
https://www.arabfinance.com/news/Def...ype=Commentary