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As Algeria emerges from over a decade of internecine bloodshed, prospects are growing for the significant expansion of the country's secretive nuclear program, which many analysts believe was formed with the specific intention of creating a nuclear weapons capacity.
With world attention focused on the Iranian program, nuclear powers are jostling for lucrative nuclear contracts as the shackles on atomic development imposed by the US over proliferation concerns are broken.
Secretive program
In 1982, Algeria announced its intention to build an atomic program capable of supplying up to 10 percent of the country's energy needs, despite the country's abundant oil and gas reserves.
A secret deal was signed with China in 1983 for the fabrication of the 15MW Es Salam reactor at Ain Oussera, around 270 kilometers south of the capital Algiers. The reactor came on line in 1993, while the site also houses a related research facility.
There have been concerns since the early 1990s that the ancillary facility may have been utilized in the small-scale separation of plutonium from spent reactor fuel.
A confidential report by Spain's Cesid intelligence agency, leaked to El Pais in August 1998, claimed that within two years the reactor would be capable of producing up to 3 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium per year - enough for at least one nuclear weapon per annum.
A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) study notes that the deployment of a Sa-5 anti-missile battery near Ain Oussera at the time of its discovery is "a key indicator of the military nature of this site."
The existence of the facility was uncovered by US intelligence agencies in 1991. Under strong US pressure, Algeria signed an IAEA safeguards agreement in 1992 and became a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) member in 1995.
A second 1MW, Argentine-built research reactor is situated at Druria, 20km south of Algiers.
The government says that the reactors are used for research, including studies on desalination and food preservation, while critics counter that the 15MW capacity of the Es Salam reactor is far beyond that needed for scientific research purposes.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of the Ain Oussera site found that the Algerian authorities had failed to declare several iters of heavy water, 3 kilograms of enriched uranium and several pellets of natural uranium supplied by China. However, the inspections have found little evidence of a weapons program.
The military appears to have made a decision - likely under significant US pressure - at some point not to push ahead with moves towards a nuclear weapons' capacity.
However, in light of current tensions, Algeria appears determined to at least build a technological capacity and knowledge-base for a future reappraisal in the event of a regional nuclear arms race.
Jostling for position
Algeria's primary ally, the US, appears to be best positioned to snare major future atomic contracts after signing a 9 June protocol on future civilian nuclear cooperation.
Russia and Algeria also signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear development in January. Russia seems set to parlay recent agreements to coordinate exploration, production and marketing for Algeria's underdeveloped oil and natural gas fields into future deals on joint atomic projects.
France has reportedly rejected a similar partnership deal due to reservations concerning the future expansion of the Algerian program.
Nevertheless, French energy giant Areva has won a series of Algerian electricity infrastructure fabrication deals in recent years and is likely to be a strong contender in a bidding war for future reactor deals.
In 2006, South Korean and Algerian officials held discussions on nuclear cooperation as the former sought to swap its nuclear know-how and technologies for access to Algeria's carbon reserves.
It is unclear what role current atomic partner China will play in any expansion of the Algerian nuclear program, though its continued involvement in activities at Ain Oussera can be expected.
The Algerian atomic energy agency, Comena, appears well-positioned to play competing atomic suitors off against each other but is likely to give the more lucrative contracts to the US after encouraging a bidding war to push down reactor costs and win commitments to the underwriting of the same.
The Algerian government has yet to elaborate on these plans, but the World Nuclear Association (WNA) notes it has established a two-decade framework for building a nuclear generation capacity.
In announcing his country's plans for a nuclear energy program on 25 November, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Shakib Khalil said the expanded program would utilize Algeria's substantial uranium deposits.
Algeria is linking arms with other Non-Aligned Movement states to oppose IAEA-backed US and Russian moves to control and delimit global nuclear fuel supplies and reprocessing activities. It has also expressed strong support for Iran's right to atomic development.
According to a BBC report, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered support for the Algerian program during a visit by Khelil to Tehran three days after the nuclear announcement. The Algerian minister responded that Algeria "is very interested in Iranian expertise in various fields, especially in oil, gas and nuclear energy."
The US will be keen to prevent the extension of Iranian influence into North Africa and the development of an autonomous Algerian uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing capacity.
Security concerns
In December last year, Khelil established a security watchdog for monitoring nuclear stations and the use and burial of atomic waste, in an indication that the US is unhappy with established safety mechanisms.
The security of Algerian nuclear facilities is a subject of concern following a series of insurgent bombings this year, including attacks on army barracks and police; a government office in Algiers; and the first assassination strike in years against a high-level government official.
The largest remaining Islamic insurgent movement, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), appears to be undergoing something of a resurgence.
The group now styles itself the al-Qaida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, though its actual operational links to international al-Qaida are believed to be tenuous at best. However, the movement has signaled its intentions to follow al-Qaida-linked groups in other regional states in targeting oil and gas facilities crucial to the national economy. Two buses carrying oil workers were attacked on 11 December 2006.
Potentially devastating attacks on nuclear facilities could cause even greater embarrassment to the government while encouraging investors and potential atomic partners to shy away from Algeria.
It is clear that the Algerian government's growing interest in nuclear energy and its decision to actively seek international atomic partnerships are key factors driving the Tunisian, Libyan and Moroccan decisions to study the possibilities for their own nuclear energy programs.
Libya and Tunisia signed nuclear cooperation deals with France in 2006, with the Tunisians planning the fabrication of a 600MW plant for electricity and desalination.
WNA reports that Russia's Atomstroiexport is already involved in feasibility studies for a nuclear power reactor to be built in neighbor and rival Morocco by 2016-17.
Algerian nuclear activities are also both influenced by and are a secondary motivating factor in Egypt's September 2006 decision to investigate a multi-reactor generation program.
Given regional tensions, ongoing security instability and concerns regarding the country's nuclear record, the decisions by several nuclear powers to pursue atomic partnership agreements with Algeria are short-sighted.
This significant policy shift contributes to building the geo-strategic environment in which a regional nuclear arms race is made possible.
source : ISA Consulting
With world attention focused on the Iranian program, nuclear powers are jostling for lucrative nuclear contracts as the shackles on atomic development imposed by the US over proliferation concerns are broken.
Secretive program
In 1982, Algeria announced its intention to build an atomic program capable of supplying up to 10 percent of the country's energy needs, despite the country's abundant oil and gas reserves.
A secret deal was signed with China in 1983 for the fabrication of the 15MW Es Salam reactor at Ain Oussera, around 270 kilometers south of the capital Algiers. The reactor came on line in 1993, while the site also houses a related research facility.
There have been concerns since the early 1990s that the ancillary facility may have been utilized in the small-scale separation of plutonium from spent reactor fuel.
A confidential report by Spain's Cesid intelligence agency, leaked to El Pais in August 1998, claimed that within two years the reactor would be capable of producing up to 3 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium per year - enough for at least one nuclear weapon per annum.
A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) study notes that the deployment of a Sa-5 anti-missile battery near Ain Oussera at the time of its discovery is "a key indicator of the military nature of this site."
The existence of the facility was uncovered by US intelligence agencies in 1991. Under strong US pressure, Algeria signed an IAEA safeguards agreement in 1992 and became a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) member in 1995.
A second 1MW, Argentine-built research reactor is situated at Druria, 20km south of Algiers.
The government says that the reactors are used for research, including studies on desalination and food preservation, while critics counter that the 15MW capacity of the Es Salam reactor is far beyond that needed for scientific research purposes.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of the Ain Oussera site found that the Algerian authorities had failed to declare several iters of heavy water, 3 kilograms of enriched uranium and several pellets of natural uranium supplied by China. However, the inspections have found little evidence of a weapons program.
The military appears to have made a decision - likely under significant US pressure - at some point not to push ahead with moves towards a nuclear weapons' capacity.
However, in light of current tensions, Algeria appears determined to at least build a technological capacity and knowledge-base for a future reappraisal in the event of a regional nuclear arms race.
Jostling for position
Algeria's primary ally, the US, appears to be best positioned to snare major future atomic contracts after signing a 9 June protocol on future civilian nuclear cooperation.
Russia and Algeria also signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear development in January. Russia seems set to parlay recent agreements to coordinate exploration, production and marketing for Algeria's underdeveloped oil and natural gas fields into future deals on joint atomic projects.
France has reportedly rejected a similar partnership deal due to reservations concerning the future expansion of the Algerian program.
Nevertheless, French energy giant Areva has won a series of Algerian electricity infrastructure fabrication deals in recent years and is likely to be a strong contender in a bidding war for future reactor deals.
In 2006, South Korean and Algerian officials held discussions on nuclear cooperation as the former sought to swap its nuclear know-how and technologies for access to Algeria's carbon reserves.
It is unclear what role current atomic partner China will play in any expansion of the Algerian nuclear program, though its continued involvement in activities at Ain Oussera can be expected.
The Algerian atomic energy agency, Comena, appears well-positioned to play competing atomic suitors off against each other but is likely to give the more lucrative contracts to the US after encouraging a bidding war to push down reactor costs and win commitments to the underwriting of the same.
The Algerian government has yet to elaborate on these plans, but the World Nuclear Association (WNA) notes it has established a two-decade framework for building a nuclear generation capacity.
In announcing his country's plans for a nuclear energy program on 25 November, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Shakib Khalil said the expanded program would utilize Algeria's substantial uranium deposits.
Algeria is linking arms with other Non-Aligned Movement states to oppose IAEA-backed US and Russian moves to control and delimit global nuclear fuel supplies and reprocessing activities. It has also expressed strong support for Iran's right to atomic development.
According to a BBC report, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered support for the Algerian program during a visit by Khelil to Tehran three days after the nuclear announcement. The Algerian minister responded that Algeria "is very interested in Iranian expertise in various fields, especially in oil, gas and nuclear energy."
The US will be keen to prevent the extension of Iranian influence into North Africa and the development of an autonomous Algerian uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing capacity.
Security concerns
In December last year, Khelil established a security watchdog for monitoring nuclear stations and the use and burial of atomic waste, in an indication that the US is unhappy with established safety mechanisms.
The security of Algerian nuclear facilities is a subject of concern following a series of insurgent bombings this year, including attacks on army barracks and police; a government office in Algiers; and the first assassination strike in years against a high-level government official.
The largest remaining Islamic insurgent movement, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), appears to be undergoing something of a resurgence.
The group now styles itself the al-Qaida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, though its actual operational links to international al-Qaida are believed to be tenuous at best. However, the movement has signaled its intentions to follow al-Qaida-linked groups in other regional states in targeting oil and gas facilities crucial to the national economy. Two buses carrying oil workers were attacked on 11 December 2006.
Potentially devastating attacks on nuclear facilities could cause even greater embarrassment to the government while encouraging investors and potential atomic partners to shy away from Algeria.
It is clear that the Algerian government's growing interest in nuclear energy and its decision to actively seek international atomic partnerships are key factors driving the Tunisian, Libyan and Moroccan decisions to study the possibilities for their own nuclear energy programs.
Libya and Tunisia signed nuclear cooperation deals with France in 2006, with the Tunisians planning the fabrication of a 600MW plant for electricity and desalination.
WNA reports that Russia's Atomstroiexport is already involved in feasibility studies for a nuclear power reactor to be built in neighbor and rival Morocco by 2016-17.
Algerian nuclear activities are also both influenced by and are a secondary motivating factor in Egypt's September 2006 decision to investigate a multi-reactor generation program.
Given regional tensions, ongoing security instability and concerns regarding the country's nuclear record, the decisions by several nuclear powers to pursue atomic partnership agreements with Algeria are short-sighted.
This significant policy shift contributes to building the geo-strategic environment in which a regional nuclear arms race is made possible.
source : ISA Consulting
" sont fait a leuropéenne, ne sallument qu'avec le support fournis avec, au maroc tu peux allumer "zzalamine, jadore ce mot
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