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  • Nigerian Production Looks to be Down Further

    The following two reports from Reuters suggest that further violence in Nigeria is continuing to take more oil production off line. One report says the recent violence upsurge is responsible for reducing exports by about 150 kb/d. It is not clear whether the $6 rise in the oil price today was due to Nigerian issues or a spillover from the huge relief rally of the stock market after the U.S. began to seriously address the root problem of its credit crisis, sub-prime mortgages - or both.


    By Austin Ekeinde

    PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Nigerian militants clashed with each other in the restive Niger Delta, a military spokesman said on Friday, highlighting the complex security situation in the oil-rich region. Two militant factions with close links to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) exchanged gunfire on Thursday at Harristown in Rivers state, a village known to be a battleground for the lucrative trade in oil theft, more commonly known as oil bunkering.

    MEND, a loose coalition of militant groups that has declared an “oil war” against the oil industry and military, has launched attacks on energy installations every day this week.

    Oil output in the world’s eighth largest oil exporter has fallen by 150,000 barrels per day and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said the violence would likely weigh on its earnings.

    The oil market, which has largely focused on the fallout from the credit crisis, found some support from Nigeria’s deteriorating security situation. Prices CLc1 traded above $100 on Friday.

    TURF BATTLE

    A private security source said Thursday’s fighting over oil turf was between gunmen loyal to rival factional leaders — Farah Dagogo and Soboma George.

    Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa, spokesman for the military task force in Rivers state, said no one was killed in the clashes and no security forces were involved.

    “It is our policy not to intervene in inter-cult skirmishes except where it is about to degenerate as to affect innocent people and their properties,” Musa said.

    The two groups fought each other several times this summer killing more than 10 people.

    Militants say they are fighting for greater development and a better living environment after decades of neglect in the delta.

    But the loyalties of many militants are largely dependent on who controls oil bunkering in the restive region.

    Some estimates put the amount of crude stolen from the region at 100,000 barrels per day, equivalent to around $10 million daily or $3.65 billion a year at current prices.

    Militants have mostly focused its attacks on Shell-operated installations, sabotaging their pipelines, gas plants and flow stations. Some Chevron (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) facilities have also been targeted.

    A Shell spokesman said the violence would likely have an impact on quarterly earnings, but would not elaborate.

    In the most recent attack, MEND said it used explosives to sabotage a Shell oil pipeline at the Cawthorne Channel in Rivers state late Thursday.

    But a military spokesman on Friday denied such an attack.




    Shell Says Nigeria Militant Attacks to Hurt Earnings (Update2)
    By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Fred Pals

    Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, said the escalation in rebel attacks against its oil and gas facilities in Nigeria will hurt earnings from its local unit.

    The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the main militant group in the region, intensified its “oil war” against foreign companies this week, attacking oil and gas production facilities owned by Shell and Chevron Corp. Nigeria’s crude exports have declined more than 20 percent since 2006 when rebels began their campaign in earnest.

    “Barrels produced in Nigeria aren’t the most profitable,” said Dirk Hoozemans, who helps manage the equivalent of $23.8 billion at Rotterdam-based Robeco. “The impact on earnings will be relatively small.”

    The latest spate of attacks began on Sept. 13 when Nigerian soldiers clashed with militants south of Port Harcourt, the hub of Nigeria’s oil industry. The militants said troops launched an offensive against its positions and declared an “oil war” in the region, which produces almost all of Nigeria’s crude.

    `Deferred Earnings’

    The raids “will ultimately add up to increased equipment downtime, repair and remediation cost and deferred earnings,” for the company’s local unit, spokesman Rainer Winzenried said in an e-mailed statement today. Four Shell installations have been targeted since Sept. 13, he said, declining to say how much production has been lost.

    Two people were killed in an attack on Shell’s Alakiri flowstation and gas plant on Sept. 15, while the Greater Port Harcourt Swamp Line, Orubiri flowstation and Rumuekepe pipeline were also attacked, according to Shell’s Winzenried.

    MEND, as the group is known, has since claimed as many as six attacks on Shell oil pipelines and flowstations and two on facilities owned by Chevron Corp. MEND says it’s fighting on behalf of the inhabitants of the Niger Delta, who have yet to share in the oil wealth of the region.

    Shell’s Nigerian joint venture “is closely monitoring the situation and continues to take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of staff and contractors,” he said. The company is “concerned about the resultant damage to oil and gas facilities and possible environmental damage.”

    Lost Production

    Nigeria has lost 280,000 barrels daily of its crude output to attacks in the Niger Delta oil region since Sept 13., bringing shut output to about 1 million barrels a day, the state-run oil company said earlier this week. Crude exports have fallen 22 percent to 1.9 million barrels a day since the end of 2005 when the country was pumping about 2.5 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg estimates.

    “It is not the most pleasant environment to work in but Shell has to stay, given the enormous potential in resources,” Hoozemans said, adding that offshore operations no longer are without risk following an attack by militants on Shell’s Bonga platform in June.

    The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) is the operator of the joint venture formed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (55%), Shell (30%), Total (10%) and Agip (5%) and is the country’s biggest tax and royalty payer. In 2007, Shell-operated ventures in Nigeria produced an average of almost 934,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day with just over 700,000 coming from SPDC.

    Shell took a $716 million charge in the fourth quarter last year because of Nigeria’s onshore assets, including impairments and provisions arising from the funding and the security situation.
    The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is.” Winston Churchill
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