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REPORT ALLEGES SAUDI ARABIA WORKING ON “SECRET NUCLEAR PROGRAM” WITH PAKISTANI ASSISTANCE
May 2006 Issue
An article in the German magazine Cicero has alleged that Pakistan has been collaborating with Saudi Arabia for the past several years to build a “secret nuclear program.” [1] Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have vehemently denied this claim, stating that the article was fabricated and is a ploy to damage Saudi-Pakistani relations. [2]
The German monthly on political affairs published the article in its April 2006 edition, detailing the allegations of the Pakistani- Saudi partnership to build a nuclear program in Saudi Arabia. According to the Western experts cited in the Cicero article, Pakistani scientists have traveled to Saudi Arabia for the last three years disguising themselves as pilgrims attending the Hajj. Allegedly these pilgrims would “disappear” for weeks at a time to work on the secret Saudi nuclear program. [3] The article also alleged that Saudi scientists have been quietly working with their Pakistani counterparts in Pakistan since the mid-1990s. The article does not state whether the alleged nuclear partnership is focused on the development of nuclear weapons or more benign nuclear energy capabilities.
Lastly, the article claimed that satellite images of the city of al-Sulayyil 500 kilometers south of Riyadh detected a “secret underground city” containing dozens of missile silos, which allegedly house Pakistani medium-range “Ghauri” missiles. Previous reports have stated that it is the site where some of the CSS-2 intermediate-range missiles Saudi Arabia purchased from China in the late 1980s are deployed and that it is being prepared to receive additional missiles. [4]
Saudi Arabia emphatically denied the existence of a secret nuclear program undertaken with Pakistani cooperation. [5] Crown Prince Sultan, the Saudi Defense Minister, stated that the claims are baseless and that Saudi Arabia fully supports non-proliferation in the region. [6] He also affirmed that “the ruling family is united in one hand and one heart” and that “these are lies spread by those who envy our country.” [7] Similarly, the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Ali Awadh Asseri stated that the article is a “mischievous and condemnable attempt to create a wedge between two brotherly countries but the perpetrators of such stupid attempts will bite dust and they will never be successful in their evil designs.” [8] Pakistan has also denied the report. Tasnim Aslma, the spokesman for the Pakistani Foreign Office stated that “it is a fabricated story and motivated by vicious intentions.” [9]
The Cicero story was reported in various Arabic media outlets. This is not the first time these allegations have come to light. In September 2003, similar charges were made by the British Guardian newspaper, which at the time reported that the Saudi leadership was considering a strategy paper for maintaining national security. [10] Two of the three options outlined were acquisition of a nuclear capability or seeking an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would protect Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan denied the 2003 reports, as well.
These recurring allegations are likely fueled by reports of significant past Saudi financial support for Pakistan, which some assert included financial backing of the Pakistani nuclear weapon program, and by numerous past and continuing visits by Saudi officials to Pakistan. In particular, it has been alleged that then-Saudi Defense Minister Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz visited Pakistani uranium enrichment and missile assembly facilities in May 1999. During the visit, he is reported to have been briefed by A.Q. Khan, considered the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb. [11] To date there has been no open source evidence to support such allegations, and initial suspicions that Saudi Arabia and Syria, like Libya and Iran, were patrons of the A.Q. Khan network have been dismissed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohammed ElBaradei.
In spite of increasing concerns in Saudi quarters over Iran’s nuclear advances, Saudi leaders would confront many difficult issues if they sought to counter this threat by developing an indigenous nuclear weapons capability. First, such an effort would represent a daunting technological challenge and, given past experience, it likely would be discovered by the United States or others years before achieving success. This would trigger an immediate crisis in Saudi-U.S. relations that could jeopardize continued U.S. military and diplomatic support and complicate efforts to contain and deter Iran.
Moreover, the Saudi regime is in the midst of a bitter conflict with internal al-Qaeda terrorists. In addition to sponsoring suicide bombings, kidnappings, assassinations, and violent shootouts with security forces, the al-Qaeda leadership has recently called on its members to attack the Saudi oil infrastructure. [12] Saudi leaders would have to weigh the danger that any nuclear facilities they might build could become the target of al-Qaeda sabotage or attack; they would also have to consider the potential risks of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable nuclear material falling into the hands of the government’s domestic adversaries. Indeed, the Saudi government has already demonstrated its concerns about terrorists acquiring weapons of mass destruction, with the enactment in November 2005 of new criminal code provisions that make possessing, manufacturing, or storing chemical or biological warfare agents in the Kingdom a crime punishable by 20 years in prison and a fine of 1 million Riyals ($267,000). [13]
For the moment, it appears that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are concentrating on diplomatic measures to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Arab members of the IAEA Board of Governors have voted to refer Iran’s non-compliance with IAEA inspection rules to the UN Security Council, for example, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Saudi Arabia is a member, has outspokenly condemned Iran’s pursuit of nuclear arms. [14] However, if Iran’s nuclear aspirations are not halted in coming years, it is possible that Saudi Arabia and, perhaps, other Arab states might give greater attention to the option of acquiring a comparable capability. (See related story, “Secretary General of Arab League Urges Arab Countries to Exploit Nuclear Power, Enter ‘Nuclear Club,’” in this issue of WMD Insights.)
Sammy Salama, Gina Cabrera-Farraj - Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies
SOURCES AND NOTES
[1] “Majala almaniya taz`am an al-Saudiya ta`amal ala barnamij nawawi siri”[German Magazine Claims that Saudi Arabia is Working on a Secret Nuclear Program], Cham Press, March 30, 2006.
[2] “Almamlika tenfee al`amal “siri” ala barnamij nawawi” [The Kingdom Denies Secret Work on a Nuclear Program], Al-Riyad, April 1, 2006; Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, “Saudi Envoy in Pakistan ‘Emphatically’ Denies Reports of Nuclear Collaboration,” The News, March 31, 2006, OSC document SAP20060331081007.
[3] “Kingdom Denies Nuke Report,” Arab News, April 1, 2006.
[4] See source in [1]; “al-Sulayyil Missile Base,” Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...l-sulayyil.htm.
[5] “Al-Riyad tanfee wujud ay barnamij nawawi ma Bakistan” [Al-Riyad Denies the Existence of any Nuclear Program with Pakistan], Dar al-Hayat, April 1, 2006.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Raid Qusti, “Royal Family is United; No Plans to Develop Nuclear Weapons,” Arab News, April 4, 2006, OSC document GMP20060404514003.
[8] Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, “Saudi Envoy in Pakistan ‘Emphatically’ Denies Reports of Nuclear Collaboration,” The News, March 31, 2006, OSC document SAP20060331081007.
[9] “Pakistan Rejects Report on Secret Nuclear Help to Saudi Arabia,” Garavi Gujarat, March 30, 2006.
[10] Ewen MacAskill and Ian Traynor, “Saudis Consider Nuclear Bomb,” Guardian, 18 September 2003.
[11] Ibid; Arnaud de Borchgrave, “Pakistan, Saudi Arabia in secret nuke pact,” Washington Times, October 22, 2003.
[12] “The Complete Text of Sheikh Usama Bin Laden’s Call Especially to the Muslims of Saudi Arabia and General Muslims Elsewhere.” al-Tawhid wal-Jihad Website, December 15, 2005.
[13] “The Saudi Regime Bans Chemical Weapons and Imposes a 20 Year Sentence on Violators,” al-Safinat Jihadi Website, November 30, 2005; “Saudi Shura Council Endorses Ban on Chemical Weapons,” Bahrain News Agency, October 2, 2005.
[14] “Non-Aligned Realigning to Confront Iran,” WMD Insights, March 2006, http://wmdinsights.org/Old_Global/Ma...obal_Iran.htm; “Gulf Cooperation Council Voices Fears of Iran’s Nuclear Program,” WMD Insights, February 2006, http://wmdinsights.org/Old_MiddleEas...ooperation.htm
May 2006 Issue
An article in the German magazine Cicero has alleged that Pakistan has been collaborating with Saudi Arabia for the past several years to build a “secret nuclear program.” [1] Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have vehemently denied this claim, stating that the article was fabricated and is a ploy to damage Saudi-Pakistani relations. [2]
The German monthly on political affairs published the article in its April 2006 edition, detailing the allegations of the Pakistani- Saudi partnership to build a nuclear program in Saudi Arabia. According to the Western experts cited in the Cicero article, Pakistani scientists have traveled to Saudi Arabia for the last three years disguising themselves as pilgrims attending the Hajj. Allegedly these pilgrims would “disappear” for weeks at a time to work on the secret Saudi nuclear program. [3] The article also alleged that Saudi scientists have been quietly working with their Pakistani counterparts in Pakistan since the mid-1990s. The article does not state whether the alleged nuclear partnership is focused on the development of nuclear weapons or more benign nuclear energy capabilities.
Lastly, the article claimed that satellite images of the city of al-Sulayyil 500 kilometers south of Riyadh detected a “secret underground city” containing dozens of missile silos, which allegedly house Pakistani medium-range “Ghauri” missiles. Previous reports have stated that it is the site where some of the CSS-2 intermediate-range missiles Saudi Arabia purchased from China in the late 1980s are deployed and that it is being prepared to receive additional missiles. [4]
Saudi Arabia emphatically denied the existence of a secret nuclear program undertaken with Pakistani cooperation. [5] Crown Prince Sultan, the Saudi Defense Minister, stated that the claims are baseless and that Saudi Arabia fully supports non-proliferation in the region. [6] He also affirmed that “the ruling family is united in one hand and one heart” and that “these are lies spread by those who envy our country.” [7] Similarly, the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Ali Awadh Asseri stated that the article is a “mischievous and condemnable attempt to create a wedge between two brotherly countries but the perpetrators of such stupid attempts will bite dust and they will never be successful in their evil designs.” [8] Pakistan has also denied the report. Tasnim Aslma, the spokesman for the Pakistani Foreign Office stated that “it is a fabricated story and motivated by vicious intentions.” [9]
The Cicero story was reported in various Arabic media outlets. This is not the first time these allegations have come to light. In September 2003, similar charges were made by the British Guardian newspaper, which at the time reported that the Saudi leadership was considering a strategy paper for maintaining national security. [10] Two of the three options outlined were acquisition of a nuclear capability or seeking an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would protect Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan denied the 2003 reports, as well.
These recurring allegations are likely fueled by reports of significant past Saudi financial support for Pakistan, which some assert included financial backing of the Pakistani nuclear weapon program, and by numerous past and continuing visits by Saudi officials to Pakistan. In particular, it has been alleged that then-Saudi Defense Minister Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz visited Pakistani uranium enrichment and missile assembly facilities in May 1999. During the visit, he is reported to have been briefed by A.Q. Khan, considered the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb. [11] To date there has been no open source evidence to support such allegations, and initial suspicions that Saudi Arabia and Syria, like Libya and Iran, were patrons of the A.Q. Khan network have been dismissed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohammed ElBaradei.
In spite of increasing concerns in Saudi quarters over Iran’s nuclear advances, Saudi leaders would confront many difficult issues if they sought to counter this threat by developing an indigenous nuclear weapons capability. First, such an effort would represent a daunting technological challenge and, given past experience, it likely would be discovered by the United States or others years before achieving success. This would trigger an immediate crisis in Saudi-U.S. relations that could jeopardize continued U.S. military and diplomatic support and complicate efforts to contain and deter Iran.
Moreover, the Saudi regime is in the midst of a bitter conflict with internal al-Qaeda terrorists. In addition to sponsoring suicide bombings, kidnappings, assassinations, and violent shootouts with security forces, the al-Qaeda leadership has recently called on its members to attack the Saudi oil infrastructure. [12] Saudi leaders would have to weigh the danger that any nuclear facilities they might build could become the target of al-Qaeda sabotage or attack; they would also have to consider the potential risks of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable nuclear material falling into the hands of the government’s domestic adversaries. Indeed, the Saudi government has already demonstrated its concerns about terrorists acquiring weapons of mass destruction, with the enactment in November 2005 of new criminal code provisions that make possessing, manufacturing, or storing chemical or biological warfare agents in the Kingdom a crime punishable by 20 years in prison and a fine of 1 million Riyals ($267,000). [13]
For the moment, it appears that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are concentrating on diplomatic measures to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Arab members of the IAEA Board of Governors have voted to refer Iran’s non-compliance with IAEA inspection rules to the UN Security Council, for example, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Saudi Arabia is a member, has outspokenly condemned Iran’s pursuit of nuclear arms. [14] However, if Iran’s nuclear aspirations are not halted in coming years, it is possible that Saudi Arabia and, perhaps, other Arab states might give greater attention to the option of acquiring a comparable capability. (See related story, “Secretary General of Arab League Urges Arab Countries to Exploit Nuclear Power, Enter ‘Nuclear Club,’” in this issue of WMD Insights.)
Sammy Salama, Gina Cabrera-Farraj - Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies
SOURCES AND NOTES
[1] “Majala almaniya taz`am an al-Saudiya ta`amal ala barnamij nawawi siri”[German Magazine Claims that Saudi Arabia is Working on a Secret Nuclear Program], Cham Press, March 30, 2006.
[2] “Almamlika tenfee al`amal “siri” ala barnamij nawawi” [The Kingdom Denies Secret Work on a Nuclear Program], Al-Riyad, April 1, 2006; Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, “Saudi Envoy in Pakistan ‘Emphatically’ Denies Reports of Nuclear Collaboration,” The News, March 31, 2006, OSC document SAP20060331081007.
[3] “Kingdom Denies Nuke Report,” Arab News, April 1, 2006.
[4] See source in [1]; “al-Sulayyil Missile Base,” Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...l-sulayyil.htm.
[5] “Al-Riyad tanfee wujud ay barnamij nawawi ma Bakistan” [Al-Riyad Denies the Existence of any Nuclear Program with Pakistan], Dar al-Hayat, April 1, 2006.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Raid Qusti, “Royal Family is United; No Plans to Develop Nuclear Weapons,” Arab News, April 4, 2006, OSC document GMP20060404514003.
[8] Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, “Saudi Envoy in Pakistan ‘Emphatically’ Denies Reports of Nuclear Collaboration,” The News, March 31, 2006, OSC document SAP20060331081007.
[9] “Pakistan Rejects Report on Secret Nuclear Help to Saudi Arabia,” Garavi Gujarat, March 30, 2006.
[10] Ewen MacAskill and Ian Traynor, “Saudis Consider Nuclear Bomb,” Guardian, 18 September 2003.
[11] Ibid; Arnaud de Borchgrave, “Pakistan, Saudi Arabia in secret nuke pact,” Washington Times, October 22, 2003.
[12] “The Complete Text of Sheikh Usama Bin Laden’s Call Especially to the Muslims of Saudi Arabia and General Muslims Elsewhere.” al-Tawhid wal-Jihad Website, December 15, 2005.
[13] “The Saudi Regime Bans Chemical Weapons and Imposes a 20 Year Sentence on Violators,” al-Safinat Jihadi Website, November 30, 2005; “Saudi Shura Council Endorses Ban on Chemical Weapons,” Bahrain News Agency, October 2, 2005.
[14] “Non-Aligned Realigning to Confront Iran,” WMD Insights, March 2006, http://wmdinsights.org/Old_Global/Ma...obal_Iran.htm; “Gulf Cooperation Council Voices Fears of Iran’s Nuclear Program,” WMD Insights, February 2006, http://wmdinsights.org/Old_MiddleEas...ooperation.htm
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