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CAR BOMB REPRISALS
Syria presents wider risks. Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah initially tried to maintain a balance between its role in Lebanon and its ambitions as an Islamist vanguard of Iran in the region. The intervention in Syria has ended this ambiguity, placing Hezbollah in the frontline of the regional conflict between the Western-backed Sunni Arab powers and Shi'ite Iran.
The chaos threatens to unleash sectarian demons from Beirut to Baghdad. Reprisals against Hezbollah have already begun: In May, rockets were fired at the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and since then several car bombs have exploded in Lebanon.
"Hezbollah entered a Sunni-Shi'ite conflict declaring jihad, so they should expect counter-jihad in return," said one Sunni opposition figure.
Tufayli, the former Hezbollah leader, said the group's intervention in Syria was a fatal miscalculation. The conflict, he said, is becoming a sectarian proxy war that minority Shi'ites will never win.
"Until recently, I had thought that armed resistance (against Israel) is a top priority and a precious goal... Those seeking to fortify the resistance should not drag it into war between Sunnis and Shi'ites... That strife will consume everybody," he said.
SPENDING BILLIONS
The war is imposing huge costs on both Hezbollah and Iran, which is already under crippling international sanctions because of its nuclear ambitions.
A regional security official with access to current intelligence assessments put Hezbollah's annual income at between $800 million and $1 billion, with 70-90 percent coming from Iran, the amount partly depending on the price of oil. The group's remaining funds come through private Shi'ite donors, "protection rackets and business and mafia networks in Lebanon," said the source.
Apart from its involvement in Syria, Hezbollah pays salaries to 60,000-80,000 people working for charities, schools, clinics and other institutions in addition to its military and security apparatus, other Shi'ite sources said.
Other security sources said Hezbollah is now receiving additional funds dedicated to the Syrian war. "Syria is sucking up Iran's reserves, with the Islamic Republic paying between $600-700 million a month (just towards the cost of fighting in Syria)," said a top Lebanese security official. Those figures could not be confirmed.
And the price is not just financial: Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has hurt its support at home. "There isn't a single village in the south that has not lost a member (in Syria)," said Ali al-Amin, a Shi'ite columnist and a critic of Hezbollah.
Most Lebanese Shi'ites, though, still support the group. "A large chunk of society is rallying behind Hezbollah because they regard their ties to it as existential," said Amin. "They say 'we are with it whether it goes to hell or heaven.'"
(Editing By Richard Woods and Simon Robinson)
Reuters
CAR BOMB REPRISALS
Syria presents wider risks. Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah initially tried to maintain a balance between its role in Lebanon and its ambitions as an Islamist vanguard of Iran in the region. The intervention in Syria has ended this ambiguity, placing Hezbollah in the frontline of the regional conflict between the Western-backed Sunni Arab powers and Shi'ite Iran.
The chaos threatens to unleash sectarian demons from Beirut to Baghdad. Reprisals against Hezbollah have already begun: In May, rockets were fired at the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and since then several car bombs have exploded in Lebanon.
"Hezbollah entered a Sunni-Shi'ite conflict declaring jihad, so they should expect counter-jihad in return," said one Sunni opposition figure.
Tufayli, the former Hezbollah leader, said the group's intervention in Syria was a fatal miscalculation. The conflict, he said, is becoming a sectarian proxy war that minority Shi'ites will never win.
"Until recently, I had thought that armed resistance (against Israel) is a top priority and a precious goal... Those seeking to fortify the resistance should not drag it into war between Sunnis and Shi'ites... That strife will consume everybody," he said.
SPENDING BILLIONS
The war is imposing huge costs on both Hezbollah and Iran, which is already under crippling international sanctions because of its nuclear ambitions.
A regional security official with access to current intelligence assessments put Hezbollah's annual income at between $800 million and $1 billion, with 70-90 percent coming from Iran, the amount partly depending on the price of oil. The group's remaining funds come through private Shi'ite donors, "protection rackets and business and mafia networks in Lebanon," said the source.
Apart from its involvement in Syria, Hezbollah pays salaries to 60,000-80,000 people working for charities, schools, clinics and other institutions in addition to its military and security apparatus, other Shi'ite sources said.
Other security sources said Hezbollah is now receiving additional funds dedicated to the Syrian war. "Syria is sucking up Iran's reserves, with the Islamic Republic paying between $600-700 million a month (just towards the cost of fighting in Syria)," said a top Lebanese security official. Those figures could not be confirmed.
And the price is not just financial: Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has hurt its support at home. "There isn't a single village in the south that has not lost a member (in Syria)," said Ali al-Amin, a Shi'ite columnist and a critic of Hezbollah.
Most Lebanese Shi'ites, though, still support the group. "A large chunk of society is rallying behind Hezbollah because they regard their ties to it as existential," said Amin. "They say 'we are with it whether it goes to hell or heaven.'"
(Editing By Richard Woods and Simon Robinson)
Reuters
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